A Question for JUsers
Published on July 27, 2007 By Larry Kuperman In Current Events
I am going to ask an open question: What is victory in Iraq? (Or the opposite, what is defeat?) Answer as you will.

I am not going to try to sway anyone except to offer this observation.

In 2003, if you had said to the American people that Saddam would be removed from power, a democratic government elected, a constitution ratified and Saddam tried in an Iraqi court, convicted and then executed, that would generally have met most people's definition of victory.

On the other hand, if you had said that almost four and a half years after the war started over 168,000 US troops would still be stationed in Iraq, fighting a combination of Sunnis, Shiites and Al Queda forces, that there is no clear cut date or timetable for withdrawal, that most of our allies have left...well that would fit the definition of quagmire.

Each of the remarks above is only intended to spur debate. I ask you....when would you know that we have won and should go or when would you say that we have lost and should go? (Or is Iraq to be the next South Korea and we never go?)

Comments
on Jul 27, 2007
According to any diehard fan of the Iraq war defeat in Iraq is leaving Iraq. Thus, inversely, SUCCESS in Iraq is staying in Iraq - forever.

Interestingly enough, Oil and defense contractors also believe success in Iraq is defined by never-ending and open-ended commitment to Iraq and the belief that we should find more countries to invade.



on Jul 27, 2007
I think this is the million dollar question. I guess at this point victory is when Iraq has a stable government that can provide safety and security for their people.

Also meeting the unmet benchmarks which are - deba'athification laws (Baath was Sadam's party), distribution of oil revenues, independent electoral commission, disarming militias (that one's a huge hurdle), increase Iraq security forces that can operate independantly, allocate reconstruction funds, ensure political authorities do not undermine security forces.
on Jul 27, 2007
"I think this is the million dollar question."

I prefer unmarked bills.

De-Baathification? You know that under orders from Gen. Petraeus, we started arming the Sunni militias to fight Al Queda? It is referred to as the "Anbar Model." A cynic might point out that these are the same Sunnis that we fought to disarm.

Personally, I think America really wants a strong secular leader, powerful enough to oppose Iran and yet not indebted to any religious persuasion.

Except that more or less defines Saddam.

Deference, we have 14 military bases that are defined under the May 2005 supplemental funding bill for Iraq as "permanent." This doesn't mean that US troops will man those bases...but it doesn't mean that they won't either.

But I would really like to hear from both sides on this. Are there clear cut metrics where if such and such happens, its time to go?
on Jul 27, 2007
Are there clear cut metrics where if such and such happens, its time to go? - Larry Kuperman



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq_withdrawal_benchmarks

Deference, we have 14 military bases that are defined under the May 2005 supplemental funding bill for Iraq as "permanent." This doesn't mean that US troops will man those bases...but it doesn't mean that they won't either.

- Larry Kuperman

I think that's deceptive, check out this article.

http://www.commondreams.org/views04/0115-08.htm

A relevant piece from the article in regard to your point;

It's not easy to assess the size or exact value of our empire of bases. Official records on these subjects are misleading, although instructive. According to the Defense Department's annual "Base Structure Report" for fiscal year 2003, which itemizes foreign and domestic U.S. military real estate, the Pentagon currently owns or rents 702 overseas bases in about 130 countries and HAS another 6,000 bases in the United States and its territories.



Enjoy
on Jul 28, 2007
Good article, Deference, but I'm not sure why you said that you think my point is deceptive. Quoting from that same article:

In order to put our forces close to every hot spot or danger area in this newly discovered arc of instability, the Pentagon has been proposing -- this is usually called "repositioning" -- many new bases, including at least four and perhaps as many as six permanent ones in Iraq. A number of these are already under construction -- at Baghdad International Airport, Tallil air base near Nasariyah, in the western desert near the Syrian border, and at Bashur air field in the Kurdish region of the north. (This does not count the previously mentioned Anaconda, which is currently being called an "operating base," though it may very well become permanent over time.) In addition, we plan to keep under our control the whole northern quarter of Kuwait -- 1,600 square miles out of Kuwait's 6,900 square miles -- that we now use to resupply our Iraq legions and as a place for Green Zone bureaucrats to relax.

Sounds as if we are on the same page.
on Jul 28, 2007
The answer is included in your question.

We have won the war to remove Saddam and allow the Iraqi People to establish a new government.

We have lost the civil war that followed the removal of Saddam and have enabled foreign terrorists to establish a base of operation within Iraq.
on Jul 30, 2007
Sounds as if we are on the same page. - Larry Kuperman

We are within the same paragraph, I mistook something you said.